5 Semi‑Annual Trend Analysis in Manila Real Estate Based on Q1: Set the Mid‑Year Market Positioning Tone
- bedandgoinc
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June 30, 2025
As we reach the halfway mark of 2025, Metro Manila's real estate sector is once again at a strategic inflection point. With the first quarter firmly behind us, now is the time for real estate professionals—developers, investors, and brokers alike—to reassess their positions, evaluate market shifts, and set a course for the remainder of the year. Q1 has offered a trove of data points and on-ground developments that signal emerging directions for the capital's urban property landscape.
From pricing pressures in top - tier districts to construction pipeline insights and renewed foreign investor appetite, this semi-annual trend analysis presents five critical developments that are already shaping mid-year strategies. The goal isn't just to observe what's happening — but to leverage these trends to make agile, informed decisions that will define market success through the end of the year and into 2026.
1. Upward Pressure on Condo Prices in Prime Locations
The Q1 2025 data revealed a consistent and accelerated rise in condo prices, particularly in Metro Manila's most prestigious districts. Bonifacio Global City (BGC), Makati Central Business District (CBD), and Ortigas Center continued to show strong capital appreciation. In BGC, listings in premium towers now range from PHP 220,000 to PHP 270,000 per square meter — marking a 5% to 6% increase from Q4 2024. Similar upward movements were recorded in Makati, especially in Legazpi and Salcedo Villages, where inventory remains tight and demand remains robust.
Mid-Year Market Positioning Insight:
This trend solidifies the dominance of core districts as price leaders, signaling that developers should double down on luxury or mid - market launches in these locations. With a continued gap between supply and demand in prime neighborhoods, developers can sustain premium pricing and highlight location-driven value. Brokers, on the other hand, should focus on capitalizing on urgency—positioning high - ROI units as“first-half pricing opportunities”before Q3 appreciation kicks in. For end-users and investors, mid - year is a critical window to buy before another pricing wave erodes affordability.
2. Sustained Growth in Rental Demand from Hybrid Workers
Hybrid work models, which solidified during the pandemic, have matured into a permanent fixture in Manila's labor landscape. Q1 data indicates that professionals still prefer proximity to workspaces without sacrificing lifestyle access. As a result, condos located near business districts, co-working spaces, MRT lines, and lifestyle amenities recorded higher occupancy rates and faster turnover.
Areas like the Ortigas Fringe (Pasig's emerging condo belt near Kapitolyo and Shaw) are posting quarterly rental increases of 4% to 5%, driven by young professionals and short-term expatriates. Meanwhile, flexible lease arrangements and furnished setups are gaining traction among renters who favor convenience and minimal commitment.
Mid-Year Market Positioning Insight:
Landlords should revisit rental packages and introduce hybrid-friendly features like high-speed internet, co - living zones, and shared workspaces. Investors targeting the rental market should favor 1- bedroom or studio units, which offer the best returns per square meter in this tenant segment. Brokers and property managers can drive mid-year occupancy by emphasizing tenant-centric perks such as 24/7 access, maintenance-free leasing, and digital payment systems.
3. Construction Permits Hint at Supply Expansion in Late 2025
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported over 14,000 approved building permits in Q1 2025, of which 9,288 were residential. A significant portion of these permits came from Metro Manila, indicating an upcoming surge in condo completions from late 2025 through early 2027. Areas such as Ortigas Extension, Mandaluyong, and northern Quezon City are seeing a notable uptick in development approvals, suggesting that these markets are bracing for fresh supply over the next 18 months.
Mid-Year Market Positioning Insight:
The looming influx of condo stock may place downward pressure on prices or rental yields in oversupplied submarkets by 2026. Developers should accelerate pre-selling activities now to lock in buyers before these units flood the market. Offering early move-in discounts, value-add packages, or progressive payment terms could help build momentum before saturation peaks. Investors are encouraged to secure pre-selling units at current rates and aim for value appreciation or strong leasing potential during handover.
4. Investor Confidence Boosted by Higher REIT Dividends
Q1 also brought good news for the commercial sector, particularly in the form of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Leading players such as AREIT, RCR (Robinsons), and MREIT all declared stable or increased dividend payouts. AREIT notably highlighted strong office leasing rates in Makati and expansion into Cebu and Davao as a sign of diversified strength. These dividend announcements serve as a concrete indicator of sector stability despite earlier concerns about office space absorption in a post-pandemic world.
Mid-Year Market Positioning Insight:
REITs now offer a strategic avenue for conservative investors looking for property-backed income streams without active asset management. Mid-year is a great time to rebalance portfolios to include these instruments, especially amid global economic uncertainty. Developers with mixed-use portfolios should actively market commercial components by referencing REIT stability as a proxy for asset strength. This is especially effective when promoting investment-grade projects in Taguig, Pasig, or Alabang.
5. Foreign Buyer Interest Rebounds, Especially from Japan and Korea
Foreign investment is gradually rebounding, and Q1 2025 showed a marked rise in property inquiries and purchases from buyers in Japan and South Korea. Visa approval numbers, travel agency bookings, and foreign bank transactions indicate increased mobility and interest in Manila’s property sector—particularly among those seeking second homes or rental income properties.
The exchange rate, which remains favorable for yen and won holders, combined with improved digital transaction options, has reduced barriers for offshore buyers. Additionally, areas with established Japanese and Korean communities—like BGC, Makati’s Legazpi Village, and parts of Ortigas—are benefiting the most.
Mid-Year Market Positioning Insight:
Real estate companies should adjust their mid-year marketing strategy to include multilingual content, online viewing options, and cross-border transaction assistance. Providing bilingual materials and remote document processing will appeal to this growing buyer segment. Developers with units near international schools, embassies, or malls with foreign tenants should actively showcase their properties as ideal lifestyle investments for overseas clients.
Calibrate, Don't Hesitate
The Manila real estate market is navigating 2025 with renewed momentum—and Q1 has already set the tone. Rising prices in key districts, strong rental demand fueled by hybrid work, a growing pipeline of new developments, higher REIT confidence, and resurging foreign buyer interest all combine to create a dynamic but challenging playing field.
Now is not the time for hesitation. Developers must fast-track launches and build urgency. Brokers should fine-tune messaging to reflect emerging demand. Investors—local and foreign—should act on current market clarity before the next inflection point arrives in Q3.
This mid-year moment is your opportunity to recalibrate strategies, sharpen focus, and realign portfolios with the trajectories already unfolding. Leverage these five Q1-based insights not just as observations, but as catalysts for action—whether you’re selling, buying, or holding. In real estate, timing is everything. And the time to position smartly for the rest of 2025 is now.
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