PSA Maintains Philippine Q2 2025 GDP Growth at 5.5%: What the Revisions Reveal About the Economy
- bedandgoinc
- 12 分前
- 読了時間: 3分
November 22,2025
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has officially maintained the country's second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.5%, confirming earlier estimates despite adjustments in several key sectors. The updated figures, released this week, offer a clearer picture of how the economy performed mid-year—and what may lie ahead as the third-quarter results approach.
GDP Holds Steady, but Key Income Indicators Revised Downward
While the headline GDP figure remained the same, the PSA adjusted other national income indicators downward. Gross national income (GNI), which captures both domestic production and income from abroad, was revised from 8.2% to 8%.
Likewise, net primary income from the rest of the world—which includes salaries of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and earnings of Philippine companies abroad—was lowered from 32.8% to 30.3%.
These revisions suggest that while the domestic economy held its ground, income flows from external sources showed slightly weaker growth than initially estimated.
Sectoral Revisions Show Mixed Signals Across Industries
The PSA's latest report included adjustments in six major industries, reflecting varying degrees of resilience and slowdown.
Sectors Revised Downward
The following industries saw slight downward revisions:
Manufacturing: 2.5% (from 2.7%)
Financial and Insurance Activities: 5.4% (from 5.6%)
Real Estate and Ownership of Dwellings: 5.9% (from 6.1%)
These three sectors are closely linked to both domestic consumption and investment. The slowdown may reflect persistent challenges such as high borrowing costs, weaker investor sentiment, regulatory uncertainties, and ongoing property market adjustments.
Sectors Revised Upward
Meanwhile, other industries surprised on the upside:
Wholesale and Retail Trade: 5.3% (from 5.1%)
Transportation and Storage: 8.8% (from 8.3%)
Mining and Quarrying: −1.3% (from −2.9%)
The improvement in retail trade and transport suggests that mobility and consumer spending remained healthy during the quarter. Additionally, the narrower contraction in mining indicates stronger activity than previously measured, possibly reflecting global commodity demand recovery.
Demand-Side Components Remain Unchanged
Interestingly, the PSA made no revisions to demand-side indicators—household consumption, government spending, investments, and exports. This suggests that the adjustments came mainly from the supply side rather than changes in consumer behavior or public expenditure.
Mid-Year Growth Still Below Target
For the first half of 2025, the economy grew by 5.4%, slightly below the government's full-year target of 5.5% to 6.5%.
This signals a need for stronger growth in the latter half of the year—something that may be difficult to achieve given domestic and global headwinds.
Analysts Expect Slower Growth in Q3 2025
The PSA is set to release the official third-quarter growth data on November 7. Economists surveyed by BusinessWorld project a median estimate of 5.3%, slower than Q2's 5.5% but slightly higher than the 5.2% recorded in the same quarter last year.
A key concern is the potential drag from several developments:
1. Government Spending Disruptions
Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan noted earlier that the corruption probe related to flood control projects may have affected public disbursements, delaying construction work and infrastructure spending.
2. Weather-Related Disruptions
A series of typhoons in the July-to-September period hindered business operations, halted classes, and slowed down service-sector activity.
3. Global Economic Uncertainties
Shifts in U.S. trade policy, volatile global markets, and geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks to exports, logistics, and investment flows.
These factors combined may have weighed on Q3 performance, setting expectations for softer growth.
What This Means for the Philippine Economy Moving Forward
The steady 5.5% GDP growth in the second quarter shows that the economy remains resilient, supported by strong domestic consumption and ongoing improvements in mobility-related sectors. However, revised figures—particularly in real estate, manufacturing, and financial services—highlight underlying vulnerabilities.
With external risks and policy uncertainties still in play, economic managers may need to reinforce infrastructure spending, strengthen investor confidence, and ensure faster public budget execution to avoid further slowdowns.
As the country awaits the official Q3 results, the mid-year data provides both a snapshot of progress and a reminder of the challenges the Philippine economy continues to face.
Sources:
コメント